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Soybeans settle higher

Corn puts in small gains

DES MOINES, Iowa -- At the close of CME Group trading Friday, soybeans settled higher and corn shifted from small losses to fractional gains.

September corn futures finished higher at $3.16. Dec. corn futures ended higher at $3.27.

Sep. soybean futures finished 3 higher at $8.90. November soybean futures are 4 higher at $8.92.

Sep. wheat futures settled 1 higher at $5.31.

Sep. soymeal futures ended $1.30 per short ton lower at $291.20. Sep. soy oil futures are 0.58 higher at 30.47 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.33 per barrel lower at $40.25. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 201 points lower.

Sal Gilbertie, of Teucrium Trading , sums up today¡¯s futures market:

¡°It looks like just some light cleaning up of short positions before most of the rest of the world goes on holiday in August,¡± he said late during trading. ¡°There¡¯s some talk of the unusually large export sales numbers for the month of July, which could be motivating some speculative shorts to exit the market before the weekend. There¡¯s not much of interest otherwise.¡±

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At mid-session Friday, soybean futures are higher while new crop corn is fractionally lower.

In late morning trading, the September corn futures are unchanged at $3.15. Dec. corn futures are lower at $3.26.

Sep. soybean futures are 3 higher at $8.90. November soybean futures are 3 higher at $8.91.

Sep. wheat futures are 2 higher at $5.32.

Sep. soymeal futures are$0.80 per short ton lower at $291.70. Sep. soy oil futures are 0.42higher at 30.31 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.10 per barrel lower at $39.82. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 124 points lower.

Caught between good weather that pressures futures downward and continued Chinese buying, traders are keeping prices in a narrow range, according to Matt Tranel of the Commodity Risk Management Group.

¡°Weather forecasts for the start of August appear to be nonthreatening as temperatures aren't overbearing along with a little moisture,¡± Tranel says. ¡°Corn appears to be in good shape after the USDA increased corn conditions in the good/excellent category by 3%. Good sales to China have been reported this week as well as two weeks ago. Traders of corn are in an interesting spot. Big crops typically get bigger but trading at $3.25ish prices already seems to have traders wondering how much opportunity there is for them if they're short from these prices. At the same time, despite good corn sales the market knows there is potential for yields being raised in the August Supply and Demand report.¡±

¡°The market has elected to sit as to not extend itself too far in any one direction,¡± he says. ¡°Soybeans also had an increase of 3% in the good/excellent category for crop conditions. Soybeans have had to battle back all week to break into the $8.90 rangethis morning. Resistance remains in the $9.00 area while support sits at $8.80/bu.¡±

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DES MOINES, Iowa ¨C In early trading Friday, soybean futures are higher while corn prices are fractionally lower.

In early trading, the September corn futures are lower at $3.15. Dec. corn futures are lower at $3.26.

Sep. soybean futures are 2 higher at $8.89. November soybean futures are 2 higher at $8.90.

Sep. wheat futures are 3 higher at $5.33.

Sep. soymeal futures are$1.30 per short ton higher at $293.80. Sep. soy oil futures are 0.13higher at 30.02 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.52 per barrel higher at $40.44. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points lower.

¡°There¡¯s an old saying: ¡®A market that can¡¯t rally on bullish news is not bullish,¡¯¡± says Bob Linnemanof Kluis Commodity Advisors. ¡°This applies to the corn market recently. However, prices are near contract lows, and momentum indicators are deeply oversold. Will other countries step in and lock in U.S. grains at these levels?¡±

Kluis and his crew are watching rain maps for the next seven days that show a below-average amount of rain for the northern Plains, Nebraska, Iowa, and the northern half of Illinois. ¡°Will the funds be impacted by this drier pattern if it extends further into August?¡± Kluis asks.

Early on Friday USDA¡¯s Foreign Agriculture Service announced that private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Export sales of 114,300 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 222,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal received in the reporting period for delivery to the Philippines during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At the close of CME Group trading Thursday, soybeans settled higher and corn ended fractionally higher.

September corn futures finished higher at $3.15. Dec. corn futures ended higher at $3.26.

Sep. soybean futures finished 2 higher at $8.86. November soybean futures are 3 higher at $8.88.

Sep. wheat futures settled 3 lower at $5.29.

Sep. soymeal futures ended $2.60 per short ton higher at $292.50. Sep. soy oil futures are 0.17 higher at 29.89 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.40 per barrel lower at $39.78. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 251 points lower.

Jack Scoville, senior analyst with PRICE Futures Group, sums up today¡¯s trading:

¡°It was a bearish day with the good Midwest weather more important than Chinese demand.We are adding on bushels to both the corn and bean crops right now and that has kept prices down.The demand from China was nice and much more than anyone was looking for ¨C but did not matter too much because of the weather.¡±

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At midsession Thursday, soybean futures are down while corn gains are shrinking in spite of a big sale to China.

In late-morning trading, the September corn futures are higher at $3.16. Dec. corn futures are higher at $3.26.

Sep. soybean futures are 1 lower at $8.82. November soybean futures are 1 lower at $8.84.

Sep. wheat futures are lower at $5.32.

Sep. soymeal futures are$0.30 per short ton lower at $289.60. Sep. soy oil futures are 0.24higher at 29.96 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.53 per barrel lower at $39.74. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 299 points lower.

The market¡¯s positive reaction to a record sale of new-crop corn to China was fading.

¡°I would say it¡¯s a poor reaction to a big sale ¨C up a penny after it was up 3 cents,¡± says Don Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

¡°We think China is mainly using up tariff-free quotas,¡± Roose says.

Traders continue to weigh China¡¯s purchases against political tensions between the U.S. and China. Some wonder if the sales agreements will result in as much in actual shipments.

Soybeans are down partly on lack of any new positive trade news.

¡°This is the third day in a rowwe haven¡¯t had any Chinese buying of soybeans,¡± Roose says.

Recent rains, cooler temperatures, and favorable weather that could help soybeans as well as grain fill in corn is also pressuring prices, Roose says.

Chicago wheat futures were off slightly at midsession, trimming strong gains Wednesday.

¡°Wheat is anchored by the supply bearishness of corn,¡± Roose says.

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DES MOINES, Iowa ¨C In early trading Thursday, soybean futures are slightly higher while corn prices rise strongly.

The September corn futures are 3 higher at $3.19. Dec. corn futures are 3 higher at $3.29.

Sep. soybean futures are higher at $8.85. November soybean futures are 1 higher at $8.86.

Sep. wheat futures are 1 lower at $5.31.

Sep. soymeal futures are$0.50 per short ton lower at $289.40. Sep. soy oil futures are 0.21higher at 29.93 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.97 per barrel lower at $40.30. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 349 points lower.

¡°The U.S. dollar is reaching levels last seen two years ago,¡± says Bob Linneman of Kluis Commodity Advisors. ¡°The comments from the Federal Reserve onWednesdaysuggest the Fed funds rate will stay near zero for the immediate future. That should translate to a continued bearish trend for the dollar.¡±

OnWednesday, wheat prices recovered some of the early week losses as the U.S. dollar continues to slide lower, he adds.

Separately, the USDA¡¯s weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows a sharp decline in old-crop corn sales resulting in net reductions, or cancelled sales.

  • Corn: 29,300 metric tons (mt) of net sales reductions for 2019/2020 and 638,700 mt net sales for 2020/2021. Trade expectations for corn were 200,000 to 550,000 mt of net sales ¡ª not reductions ¡ª for old crop and 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 mt new crop.
  • Soybeans: 257,800 mt for 2019/2020; 3,344,200 mt for 2020/2021.For soybeans, trade guesses ranged from 300,000 to 500,000 mt old crop and 1,500,000 to 2,000,000 mt new crop.
  • Wheat: 676,600 mt
  • Soybean meal: 293,800 mt (old and new crop)

Any bearish impact of the weekly sales report could be offset by an overnight flash sales report from USDA of almost 2 mmt of corn to China.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

Export sales of 1,937,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

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On Wednesday, the CME Group¡¯s farm markets closemostly lower.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 4 lower at $3.15. Dec. corn futures closed 3 lower at $3.26.

Sept. soybean futures settled 3 lower at $8.84. November soybean futures ended 2 lower at $8.85.

Sep. wheat futures closed 9 higher at $5.32.

Sep. soymeal futures finished $1.90 per short ton lower at $289.90. Sept. soy oil futures settled 0.19higher at 29.72 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.17 per barrel higher at $41.21. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that higher crop prospects pressure prices.

¡°With a timely rain in August, we are setting up for a record soybean yield. The current crop rating matches the 2014 soybean crop rating, the highest on record,¡± Kluis told customers in a daily note. ¡°The Energy Information Agency reports come out this morning. U.S. crude oil inventories have been increasing as more of the U.S. again begins to shut down. Also watch ethanol usage and inventory. Usage has been tracking higher, and inventories are very close to last year¡¯s supply.¡±

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Tuesday¡¯s Grain MarketReview

On Tuesday, the CME Group¡¯s farm markets lack any fresh news to trade.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 5 lower at $3.20. Dec. corn futures ended 4 lower at $3.30.

Sept. soybean futures closed 11 lower at $8.87. November soybean futures finished 12 lower at $8.87.

Sep. wheat futures ended 4 lower at $5.23.

Sep. soymeal futures settled $3.50 per short ton lower at $291.80. Sept. soy oil futures closed 0.18 lower at 29.53 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.48 per barrel lower at $41.12. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points lower.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the markets fell due to stronger crop ratings.

¡°A big move downward in the soybean market, today, with the improved crop ratings and no demand from China being the big headlines. Corn was down on the crop ratings as well. Looks like the board wants to see continued Chinese demand. So, one day when it doesn¡¯t show, everyone gets nervous. Also, the war of words and political actions between the U.S. and China doesn¡¯t help,¡± Scoville says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that demand and crop ratings will determine the direction of prices.

¡°The USDA Crop Progress report showed corn and soybean ratings improving by 3%.This was better than expected and has the corn and soybean markets under pressure,¡± Kluis told customers in a daily note. ¡°Current crop ratings suggest a slightly higher-than-trendline corn and soybean crop in the United States. Corn ratings are 5% above the five-year average of 67%,and soybean ratings are 5% above the five-year average of 67%.¡±

Kluis added, ¡°How much corn will China buy in the next month? Corn futures in China rallied to $8.44 per bushel yesterday. That suggests a lot of U.S. corn will start to move to China from the United States. With the hard down-move in the U.S. dollar, U.S. corn exports are competitive in the global export market.¡±

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Tuesday¡¯s Grain Market Review

DES MOINES, Iowa -- At the close of CME Group trading Monday, soybean gains shifted slightly into positive territory and corn settled lower.

September corn futures finished 1 lower at $3.25. Dec. corn futures ended lower at $3.34.

Aug. soybean futures finished 1 higher at $9.06. November soybean futures are higher at $8.99.

Sep. wheat futures settled 11 lower at $5.27.

Sep. soymeal futures ended $1.80 per short ton higher at $295.30. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.20 lower at 29.60 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.50 per barrel higher at $41.79. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 64 points higher.

Jack Scoville of PRICE Futures Group offers some reasons why soybean prices sometimes seemed soft during trading Monday.

¡°The beans are being helped by continuous Chinese demand, BUT THE DEMAND IS STILL BEHIND THE PACE NEEDED TO COMPLETE PHASE 1 SO NO ONE IS TOO EXCITED BY THE NEWS,¡± he says. ¡°The weather is better with the heat of last weekend gone and now cooler temperatures and some showers are in the region. Good for the crops. Wheat is still a function of EU and Russian prices which must be fadingtoday. There¡¯s more talk of the US Dollar which is now at contract lows and looking weak. That could support exports.¡±

Don Roose of U.S. Commodities says improved weather and lower palm oil prices are putting downward pressure on soybeans but that soybean prices rose 26 cents a bushel overnight in China¡¯s futures market.

¡°Improved weather pushes us down. Palm oil pushes us down, but the Chinese buying gives us support,¡± Roose says. Soybean prices are also helped by the price for U.S. beans being the lowest globally. And the dollar, which is down sharply today, also helps all U.S. commodity exports.

Weather is putting downward pressure on corn futures, Roose says.

After weekend rains, ¡°I would say the dry areas shrank,¡± Roose says. ¡°¡±I would say 30% of Iowa is in need of a rain yet.¡±

¡°It¡¯s unfortunate if you didn¡¯t get the rain but the cool temperatures are helpful also,¡± he says. Better weather will help the corn crop where pollination isn¡¯t complete and will help with grain fill.

For that reason, Roose doesn¡¯t expect a big change in the U.S. corn crop condition that will be out later today from USDA--perhaps staying the same as in last week¡¯s Crop Progress report at 69% good to excellent or possibly going up to 70% good to excellent.

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At midsession Monday, ahead of this afternoon¡¯s crop progress report, grain futures are down with even soybeans fractionally lower.

In late morning trading, the September corn futures are 2 lower at $3.24. Dec. corn futures are 1 lower at $3.33.

Aug. soybean futures are lower at $9.04. November soybean futures are lower at $8.99.

Sep. wheat futures are 9 lower at $5.30.

Sep. soymeal futures are$1.00 per short ton higher at $294.50. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.24lower at 29.56 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.65 per barrel lower at $40.64. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 74 points higher.

Exports continue to support soybean prices while pockets of drought in the Corn Belt aren¡¯t enough to excite traders.

¡°Chinese purchases have definitely supported the soybean complex,¡± says Matt Tranel of the Commodity Risk Management Group.¡°We¡¯ve been trading between $8.90 and $9.00 for the majority of the past few weeks. We¡¯re crossing our fingers that beans can break out higher as optimism continues for additional Chinese purchases.Weather over the past week or so throughout the United States has been hot.Regardless, crop conditions continue to look good, and that is keeping thecorn market very calm.Most in the trade are anticipating another bin buster for corn so a large push higher seems unlikely at this point.¡±

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Monday, soybean futures are higher while corn and wheat prices are lower.

In early trading, the September corn futures are 1 higher at $3.27. Dec. corn futures are 1 higher at $3.36.

Aug. soybean futures are 3 higher at $9.08. November soybean futures are 3 higher at $9.02.

Sep. wheat futures are 8 lower at $5.31.

Sep. soymeal futures are$2.70 per short ton higher at $296.20. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.26lower at 29.54 per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.23 per barrel lower at $41.06. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points lower.

Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors is anticipating today¡¯s weekly Crop Progress Report from USDA.

¡°The USDA Crop Progress Reporttodaywill show corn conditions steady to 1% better and soybeans about steady,¡± Kluis says. ¡°I now think the USDA Crop yield estimates in August will be at or just slightly above the earlier trendline projections.¡±

¡°Watch the U.S. drought monitor,¡± he adds. ¡°The map shows two major areas of concern. First is Ohio and much of eastern Indiana; second is western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and parts of Kansas. What concerns me is how much of Iowa has turned very dry over the last two weeks. Rain is in the forecast for later this week. It needs to hit in the dry areas by late this week or corn yields will move lower in Iowa.¡±

Continued soybean purchases by China in a USDA report today may also be adding support to soybean prices.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

Export sales of 250,371 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

Export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

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